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Treasury Securities Auction results

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On 19 August, 2025 the Ministry of Finance of Georgia on Treasury Securities Auction N47 has issued Benchmark Bonds with nominal value of 50 000 000 GEL and a residual maturity of 8.9 years.

2 Banks have taken part in auction. The total demand has equaled 95 000 000 GEL. The following interest rates were reported: Minimum rate 9.740%, Maximum rate 9.769%, and weighted average rate 9.747%.

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Finance
image Macro Update – Georgia - TBC Capital

21.08.2025.14:36

What’s Left of the Good Time Buffer?

 

  • While net inflows are still improving, GEL deposits are growing steadily in the banking system and the NBG continues reserve replenishment, we question how much of the “Good Time Buffer” i.e. deposits excessively converted to the FC and credit in LC, currently supporting the GEL, is left for now;

     

  • Having in mind the number of other drivers such as net inflows, fiscal balance, the share of cash in monetary aggregates and corresponding effect on credit side as well we estimate the approximate volume using three different scenarios based on deposit larization dynamics;

     

  • Based on various assumptions of deposit and credit trends, we estimate so called buffer initially to stand around $ 1 billion;

     

  • Another proxy may be the NBG selling net $875 million from FX reserves in May-October 2024 and, thereafter, purchasing a modest $153 million in November-February, while scaling up to $1.5 billion net purchases since March up to date, per on our estimates, other drivers also being in play;

     

  • Finally, we conclude that currently a substantial amount though less than half of total still appears to be left over from the buffer, set to continue supporting the GEL going forward unless sentiments deteriorate again.

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