Fixed Income Overview - TBC Capital
U.S. inflation data for July showed core CPI rising 0.3% month-over-month - the fastest since January - driven by broad-based services inflation.
U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly as the 10-year climbed to 4.30% and the 2-year to 3.77%, leaving the curve slightly flatter but still upward-sloping.
Regional fixed income markets were steady, with sovereign bonds flat overall but Armenian bonds gaining 1.94% on optimism around the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace framework, which eased geopolitical risks and boosted investor confidence.
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Macro Update – Georgia - TBC Capital
21.08.2025.14:36
What’s Left of the Good Time Buffer?
While net inflows are still improving, GEL deposits are growing steadily in the banking system and the NBG continues reserve replenishment, we question how much of the “Good Time Buffer” i.e. deposits excessively converted to the FC and credit in LC, currently supporting the GEL, is left for now;
Having in mind the number of other drivers such as net inflows, fiscal balance, the share of cash in monetary aggregates and corresponding effect on credit side as well we estimate the approximate volume using three different scenarios based on deposit larization dynamics;
Based on various assumptions of deposit and credit trends, we estimate so called buffer initially to stand around $ 1 billion;
Another proxy may be the NBG selling net $875 million from FX reserves in May-October 2024 and, thereafter, purchasing a modest $153 million in November-February, while scaling up to $1.5 billion net purchases since March up to date, per on our estimates, other drivers also being in play;
Ameriabank Joins UATE, Marking a Groundbreaking Partnership between the Financial and Technological Sectors
18.08.2025.18:16
National Bank of Georgia Presents Fintech Strategy and Regulatory Vision to Fintech Association Member Companies
31.07.2025.17:23
The National Bank of Georgia decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.0%
31.07.2025.17:21
