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Consumer Spending Tracker - TBC Capital

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In July 2025, according to data from TBC Bank’s payment channels, consumers increased their overall expenditures and made more transactions compared to July 2024.

In the leisure sector, particularly in hotels, spending increased by 27%, which was mostly driven by non-residents’ increased expenses. In July, non-residents’ average transaction in hotels was approximately 4 times higher compared to residents’ figure.

In July 2025, non-cash spending in restaurants annually increased by 29%, while the average transaction volume marked GEL 38. During the same month, non-residents’ average spending was approximately 4 times higher than residents’ figure.

In July 2025, consumers spent 22% more on apparel and accessories compared to last year’s July.

 

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Finance
image Macro Update – Georgia - TBC Capital

21.08.2025.14:36

What’s Left of the Good Time Buffer?

 

  • While net inflows are still improving, GEL deposits are growing steadily in the banking system and the NBG continues reserve replenishment, we question how much of the “Good Time Buffer” i.e. deposits excessively converted to the FC and credit in LC, currently supporting the GEL, is left for now;

     

  • Having in mind the number of other drivers such as net inflows, fiscal balance, the share of cash in monetary aggregates and corresponding effect on credit side as well we estimate the approximate volume using three different scenarios based on deposit larization dynamics;

     

  • Based on various assumptions of deposit and credit trends, we estimate so called buffer initially to stand around $ 1 billion;

     

  • Another proxy may be the NBG selling net $875 million from FX reserves in May-October 2024 and, thereafter, purchasing a modest $153 million in November-February, while scaling up to $1.5 billion net purchases since March up to date, per on our estimates, other drivers also being in play;

     

  • Finally, we conclude that currently a substantial amount though less than half of total still appears to be left over from the buffer, set to continue supporting the GEL going forward unless sentiments deteriorate again.

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